Michael Carter Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Carries

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+120/-166).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 69.5 plays per game.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have elected to go for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 11th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to be a much smaller part of his team's run game this week (31.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (45.1% in games he has played).
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends grade out as the best group of DEs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

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