Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 1:06 PM EST

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-102/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Melvin Gordon has been a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this year (40.2% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (51.7%).
Melvin Gordon has rushed for many fewer yards per game (33.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).
Melvin Gordon's rushing effectiveness has worsened this season, notching a mere 3.49 yards-per-carry vs a 4.45 mark last season.
Melvin Gordon has been among the bottom RBs in football at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.58 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 14th percentile.

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