Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 8th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 43.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will be rolling with backup QB Brett Rypien in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Melvin Gordon has been a much smaller piece of his team's run game this season (40.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (51.7%).
Melvin Gordon has run for many fewer yards per game (34.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
Melvin Gordon's rushing effectiveness has worsened this year, compiling just 3.69 yards-per-carry vs a 4.45 rate last year.

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