Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 55.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 53.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Melvin Gordon has earned 44.8% of his offense's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
The Denver Broncos offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in run blocking.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has produced the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up 6.28 yards-per-carry.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 2nd-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 38.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Melvin Gordon has run for significantly fewer yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
Melvin Gordon's running effectiveness (3.79 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (22nd percentile among RBs).

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