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Melvin Gordon

Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts

Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 53.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 63.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects Melvin Gordon to total 16.1 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.

THE BLITZ projects Melvin Gordon to be a more important option in his offense's running game this week (59.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.2% in games he has played).

The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Melvin Gordon has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (34.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).

Melvin Gordon's ground efficiency has declined this year, totaling a mere 3.68 yards-per-carry vs a 4.45 rate last year.

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