Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.08 seconds per snap.
The Las Vegas Raiders safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst unit in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Melvin Gordon has been a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this season (38.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (51.7%).
Melvin Gordon has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (32.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
Melvin Gordon's rushing effectiveness has diminished this year, compiling a mere 3.51 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.45 figure last year.

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