Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (+105/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Melvin Gordon has been much less involved in his offense's running game this year (39.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (51.7%).
Melvin Gordon has rushed for many fewer yards per game (33.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
Melvin Gordon's running efficiency has diminished this season, averaging a measly 3.53 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.45 figure last season.

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