Melvin Gordon Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing TD

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+216/-332).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +226 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +216.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-most TDs in the NFL (1.17 per game) versus the New York Jets defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 9th-least run-centric team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 40.5% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Melvin Gordon to be a much smaller piece of his team's rushing attack near the end zone this week (44.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (62.5% in games he has played).
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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