Melvin Gordon Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 18, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+181/-265).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +186 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +181.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Melvin Gordon has received 62.5% of his team's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
The Denver Broncos offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in run blocking.
Opposing offenses have run for the most touchdowns in the league (1.00 per game) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-least run-heavy team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 40.6% red zone run rate.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.