Melvin Gordon Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing TD

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 6, 2022 11:50 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Melvin Gordon to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game near the goal line this week (67.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (46.1% in games he has played).
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 8th-least run-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 39.8% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles grade out as the best unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Denver Broncos have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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