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Melvin Gordon

Melvin Gordon Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 4

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

Melvin Gordon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+227/-355).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +230 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +227.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Melvin Gordon has rushed for 0.47 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest figures in the league among running backs (92nd percentile).

Opposing squads have run for the 8th-most TDs in football (1.05 per game) vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season.

The Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-worst DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 10th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 40.3% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 58.4 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Melvin Gordon to be a much smaller part of his team's running game near the end zone this week (48.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (66.8% in games he has played).

The Denver Broncos have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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