Melvin Gordon Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing TD

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+191/-276).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -203 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -276.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are an enormous 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Melvin Gordon has earned 55.9% of his team's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, placing him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
Melvin Gordon has run for 0.47 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (89th percentile).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 2nd-most TDs in the league (1.44 per game) against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.
The Houston Texans safeties rank as the 30th-worst unit in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 10th-least run-oriented team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.2% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.43 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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