Melvin Gordon Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing TD

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+224/-349).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +233 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +224.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.08 seconds per snap.
The Las Vegas Raiders safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst unit in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Melvin Gordon to be a less important option in his team's rushing attack near the end zone this week (41.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (52.2% in games he has played).
The Denver Broncos have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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