Melvin Gordon Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing TD

Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+280/-380).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 10th-least run-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 41.1% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Melvin Gordon to be much less involved in his offense's run game near the goal line this week (38.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (52.2% in games he has played).
Opposing teams have run for the least TDs in the league (0.25 per game) versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best DE corps in the NFL this year with their run defense.

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