Melvin Gordon Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 11:06 PM EST

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+227/-362).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +251 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +227.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The Broncos have been the 7th-most run-centric offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 47.9% red zone run rate.
Melvin Gordon has rushed for 0.50 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (88th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 60.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Melvin Gordon to be a less important option in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (42.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (55.4% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best group of DTs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
The Denver Broncos have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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