Melvin Gordon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 6, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+148/-203).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Melvin Gordon to earn 3.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (87.8%) versus RBs this year (87.8%).

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Melvin Gordon has been used less as a potential target this season (25.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (43.4%).
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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