Melvin Gordon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-175/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Completion% in football (86.5%) vs. running backs this year (86.5%).
The Denver Broncos O-line has given their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 8th-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.