Melvin Gordon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-118/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will be rolling with backup QB Brett Rypien in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Melvin Gordon's receiving efficiency has gotten a boost this year, accumulating 7.74 yards-per-target compared to a measly 6.52 rate last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 10th-least in football.
Melvin Gordon has run fewer routes this year (27.6% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (43.4%).
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (70.3%) versus running backs this year (70.3%).
The New York Jets pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus RBs this year, conceding 4.70 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in football.

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