Melvin Gordon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 7, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Melvin Gordon to earn 3.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Melvin Gordon's talent in generating extra yardage have gotten better this year, totaling 9.38 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 6.54 rate last year.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Melvin Gordon has been used less as a potential target this season (25.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (43.4%).
Melvin Gordon's receiving efficiency has declined this season, notching just 5.21 yards-per-target compared to a 6.53 figure last season.

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