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Melvin Gordon

Melvin Gordon Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers

Melvin Gordon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

Melvin Gordon has notched a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

The Denver Broncos offensive line has allowed their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 57.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 61.0 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.

The San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 31.0) vs. RBs since the start of last season.

The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against RBs since the start of last season, allowing 5.11 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the NFL.

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