Melvin Gordon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 9:11 PM EST

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.08 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Melvin Gordon to accumulate 3.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 78th percentile among running backs.
Melvin Gordon has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 8.7% this year, which ranks him in the 76th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

Melvin Gordon's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 82.8% to 79.7%.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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