Melvin Gordon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-101/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
Melvin Gordon's pass-catching effectiveness has gotten better this year, accumulating 7.35 yards-per-target vs a measly 6.52 figure last year.
Melvin Gordon's ability to generate extra yardage has gotten better this season, accumulating 10.06 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 6.54 mark last season.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Completion% in football (86.5%) vs. running backs this year (86.5%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. RBs this year, allowing 5.18 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has excelled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.36 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.
The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 8th-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.