Melvin Gordon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 10:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
Melvin Gordon has run a route on 43.4% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has yielded the most receiving yards per game in football (61.0) vs. RBs since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 60.5 plays per game.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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