Melvin Gordon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 1:31 PM EST

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-109/-131).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Melvin Gordon has been a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this year (40.2% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (51.7%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best DT corps in football this year with their run defense.
The Denver Broncos have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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