Melvin Gordon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Carries

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 6, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Melvin Gordon to total 16.1 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Melvin Gordon to be a more important option in his offense's running game this week (59.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.2% in games he has played).
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles grade out as the best unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Denver Broncos have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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