Melvin Gordon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Carries

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-109/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are an enormous 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 7th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Melvin Gordon to total 12.7 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
Melvin Gordon has garnered 52.1% of his team's rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
The Houston Texans safeties rank as the 30th-worst unit in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.43 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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