Melvin Gordon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Carries

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.08 seconds per snap.
The Las Vegas Raiders safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst unit in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Melvin Gordon has been a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this season (38.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (51.7%).
The Denver Broncos have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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