Mecole Hardman Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Mecole Hardman

NFL · Player Props

Mecole Hardman

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 6, 2024 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Mecole Hardman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-210/+160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +190 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense last year: most in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3 points.
In terms of a defense's impact on tempo, at 28.36 seconds per snap, the model projects the Chiefs to be the 6th-most sluggish in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time.
Mecole Hardman has run a route on 25.4% of his team's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 21st percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
With a meager 0.1 adjusted catches per game (1st percentile) last year, Mecole Hardman has been as one of the weakest wide receivers in the NFL in the NFL.
Last year, the tough Ravens defense has surrendered a paltry 59.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-smallest rate in the league.

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