Mecole Hardman Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Mecole Hardman

NFL · Player Props

Mecole Hardman

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:56 PM EST

Analysis

Mecole Hardman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Mecole Hardman's pass-catching effectiveness has been refined this year, accumulating 10.39 yards-per-target compared to just 8.96 rate last year.
Mecole Hardman's skills in picking up extra yardage have gotten better this season, notching 12.33 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 6.97 rate last season.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Mecole Hardman's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.8% to 71.1%.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 136.0) versus wide receivers this year.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.51 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in the NFL.

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