Mecole Hardman Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Mecole Hardman

NFL · Player Props

Mecole Hardman

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Mecole Hardman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+254/-416).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -408 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -416.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Mecole Hardman's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.8% to 65.3%.
The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 4th-least touchdowns through the air in the league to wideouts: 0.40 per game this year.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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