Mecole Hardman Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Mecole Hardman

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 11:25 PM EST

Analysis

Mecole Hardman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+323/-597).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -595 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -597.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has given up the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (67.9%) to wideouts since the start of last season (67.9%).
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has afforded their QB 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Mecole Hardman's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.8% to 60.2%.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.