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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may fall-off.

Matthew Stafford's 66.1% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a material improvement in his throwing accuracy over last season's 62.4% mark.

This year, the deficient Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded a staggering 75.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-highest rate in football.

When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Arizona's unit has been lousy this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is suggested by the Rams being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

The model projects the Rams to be the 8th-least pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 52.8% red zone pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have just 127.7 offensive plays run: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.

Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Cardinals, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in football (just 33.0 per game) this year.

The Rams offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

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