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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Rams, who are -3-point underdogs.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Rams to pass on 60.6% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.

In this contest, Matthew Stafford is anticipated by the projection model to wind up with the 10th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.1.

Matthew Stafford's passing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 62.4% to 65.8%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 48.0% rate of passing the ball in the red zone (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in football in these situations has been the Rams.

Opposing QBs have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Rams grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year.

This year, the tough 49ers defense has given up a paltry 68.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-smallest rate in football.

The 49ers linebackers project as the best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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