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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford TD Passes
Player Prop Week 10

Los Angeles Rams vs Miami Dolphins

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -175.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower run volume.

Matthew Stafford has attempted 35.3 throws per game this year, ranking in the 81st percentile among quarterbacks.

As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Miami's unit has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Rams rank as the least pass-focused team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 46.0% red zone pass rate.

The projections expect this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game versus the Dolphins defense this year: fewest in the league.

The Los Angeles O-line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

This year, the daunting Miami Dolphins defense has given up a puny 1.00 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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