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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Rams are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their typical approach.

The predictive model expects the Rams to be the 3rd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The 6th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Los Angeles Rams this year (a colossal 61.7 per game on average).

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.

The predictive model expects Matthew Stafford to attempt 37.5 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-most among all quarterbacks.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 54.4% red zone pass rate.

The projections expect the Rams to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.

The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Matthew Stafford's passing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 58.6%.

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