Matthew Stafford TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-175/+145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Rams have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 64.4 plays per game.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may slide.
Matthew Stafford has attempted 42.5 throws per game this year, ranking in the 100th percentile among quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Cardinals defense this year: 9th-most in football.

Favors Under

This game's line indicates a running game script for the Rams, who are favored by 6.5 points.
Right now, the 9th-least pass-oriented offense in football in the red zone (55.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Los Angeles Rams.
The leading projections forecast the Rams to call the 3rd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Rams ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year.
Matthew Stafford's 60.3% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a a remarkable regression in his throwing accuracy over last year's 65.3% figure.

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