Matthew Stafford TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Rams to pass on 63.6% of their plays: the 4th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have played at the 7th-fastest tempo in the league (adjusted for context) against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year, averaging 26.60 seconds per snap.
The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may go down.
The leading projections forecast Matthew Stafford to attempt 37.4 passes in this contest, on average: the 4th-most out of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Rams rank as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 47.2% red zone pass rate.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Matthew Stafford's throwing accuracy has worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 61.4%.

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