Matthew Stafford TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 26, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Rams as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Matthew Stafford has attempted 37.6 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 84th percentile among quarterbacks.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 54.0% red zone pass rate.
The projections expect the Rams to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier conditions this week.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Matthew Stafford's passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.3% to 61.6%.

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