Matthew Stafford TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+175/-220).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -220.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 66.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 9th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 55.6 plays per game.
Matthew Stafford has been among the bottom TD passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a paltry 1.00 per game while ranking in the 22nd percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has surrendered the 7th-least touchdowns through the air in football: 1.17 per game since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers safeties profile as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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