Matthew Stafford TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Los Angeles Rams vs Cleveland Browns · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+180/-245).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -245.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.
In racking up a colossal 36.1 pass attempts per game this year, Matthew Stafford stands among the top quarterbacks in football (75th percentile) for this stat.

Favors Under

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Rams, who are favored by 3.5 points.
With a 49.2% rate of passing the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 8th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL in this setting has been the Los Angeles Rams.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Browns, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 26.8 per game) this year.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Rams profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.
Matthew Stafford's 60.0% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a material decline in his throwing accuracy over last season's 65.3% mark.

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