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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford TD Passes
Player Prop Week 12

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+112/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -143 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -148.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.

Matthew Stafford has attempted 36.4 throws per game this year, checking in at the 79th percentile when it comes to QBs.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-highest rate in football vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year (73.2% Adjusted Completion%).

The Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded the 8th-most passing touchdowns in football: 1.55 per game this year.

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Arizona's CB corps has been lousy this year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the moment, the 10th-least pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (54.2% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Los Angeles Rams.

The model projects the Rams to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cardinals, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.3 per game) this year.

As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Rams profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year.

Matthew Stafford's passing precision has diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 58.4%.

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