Matthew Stafford TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Rams are predicted by the projections to call 65.7 total plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Rams have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 60.0 plays per game.
In logging a colossal 36.8 pass attempts per game this year, Matthew Stafford ranks among the top quarterbacks in the NFL (81st percentile) by this metric.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Seahawks defense this year: 8th-most in football.

Favors Under

With a 49.0% rate of passing the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the league under these circumstances has been the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Matthew Stafford's throwing precision has diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 58.9%.
When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Seattle's collection of CBs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 4th-best in football.

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