Matthew Stafford TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-106/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 66.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Rams have been the 10th-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 63.8% red zone pass rate.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Matthew Stafford has attempted 38.9 throws per game this year, grading out in the 75th percentile among quarterbacks.
Matthew Stafford's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 65.4% to 69.5%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has conceded the 8th-least TDs through the air in football: 1.00 per game this year.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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