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Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-200/+160).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 37.6 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.Matthew Stafford's throwing precision has improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 65.4% to 69.5%.The Carolina Panthers linebackers project as the 7th-worst unit in the NFL this year with their pass rush.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Rams are a heavy 10-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.74 seconds per play.The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the quickest in football since the start of last season.The Los Angeles Rams have utilized play action on a measly 21.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (4th-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
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