Matthew Stafford TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 11:50 PM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 4th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Matthew Stafford's passing precision has improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 65.4% to 71.6%.
Matthew Stafford has been among the leading TD throwers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 1.88 per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.59 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 57.2 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: least in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has surrendered the 7th-least passing touchdowns in football: 1.35 per game since the start of last season.