Matthew Stafford TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM EST

Analysis

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-165/+125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 36.6 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Matthew Stafford's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 65.4% to 72.1%.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 28.46 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the NFL.
The Arizona Cardinals safeties profile as the 10th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

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