Matthew Stafford TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+165/-250).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Rams have been the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.8% red zone pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 38.1 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks grade out as the worst collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-lowest level in football vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year (65.1%).
The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the 7th-least passing TDs in football: 1.10 per game this year.

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