Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have played at the 7th-fastest tempo in the league (adjusted for context) against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year, averaging 26.60 seconds per snap.
Matthew Stafford has been a more important option in his team's ground game this year (9.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (3.9%).
Matthew Stafford has run for many more yards per game (11.0) this season than he did last season (2.0).

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Rams as the 4th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 36.4% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may go down.
This week, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projection model to earn the 5th-fewest carries out of all QBs with 2.2.
Matthew Stafford has been among the weakest QBs in the league at generating extra running yardage, averaging a mere 0.40 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 9th percentile.

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