Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 25, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier conditions this week.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to be the 4th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 38.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Rams to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Matthew Stafford to accumulate 2.3 carries in this game, on average: the 5th-least of all QBs.
Matthew Stafford has picked up a mere 4.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the smallest marks in the league among quarterbacks (11th percentile).

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