Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-123/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack this week (7.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.4% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have run for the 9th-most yards in football (134 per game) versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive tackles rank as the 5th-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 4th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 36.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to accrue 1.8 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
Matthew Stafford has averaged a measly 3.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the smallest figures in the league among quarterbacks (22nd percentile).
Matthew Stafford has been among the worst quarterbacks in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a measly 0.53 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 3rd percentile.

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